CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
16
18
20
54
0
0
1
1
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
33
67
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
28
32
35
95
0
0
2
2
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.056 0.333 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.026 0.028
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.059 1.000 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00