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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
11
22
22
55
0
0
0
0
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
100
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
19
39
39
96
0
0
0
0
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.50 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.023 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.000
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00