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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
30
41
32
103
0
0
0
0
31
42
32
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
29
39
30
98
0
0
0
0
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.45 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.031 0.394 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.003 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.032 0.976 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.602 0.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00