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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
27
15
55
0
1
1
2
13
28
16
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
47
26
96
0
2
2
4
23
49
28
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.482 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.964 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.509 0.500
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00