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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
28
40
34
102
0
1
0
1
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
0
0
67
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
27
38
32
97
0
1
0
1
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.49 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.067 0.388 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.049 0.003 -0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.976 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.608 1.000
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00