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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
28
39
33
100
0
1
1
2
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
20
0
60
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
40
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
27
37
31
95
0
1
1
2
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.44 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.412 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.065 0.382 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.001 0.010
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.951 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.610 0.500
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00