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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
36
33
31
100
0
1
0
1
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
33
67
0
0
17
17
0
17
0
17
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
34
31
30
95
0
1
0
1
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.50 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.86 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.136 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.025 0.324 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 -0.125 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.011 -0.005 -0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.027 0.943 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.670 1.000
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00