CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
37
33
30
100
0
1
3
4
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
80
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
35
31
29
95
0
1
3
4
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.86 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.231 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.324 0.088
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.005 0.053
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.943 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.670 0.250
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00