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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
37
34
31
102
0
0
1
1
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
25
50
0
25
0
25
0
0
25
25
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
35
32
30
97
0
0
1
1
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.91 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.330 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.000 0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.971 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.000
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00