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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
36
30
37
103
0
1
0
1
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
0
100
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
34
29
35
98
0
1
0
1
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.22 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.019 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.709 1.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00