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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
34
26
42
102
0
1
1
2
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
67
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
32
25
40
97
0
1
1
2
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.64 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.019
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.016 0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.745 0.500
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00