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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
34
27
42
103
0
0
1
1
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
33
0
33
0
0
33
33
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
32
26
40
98
0
0
1
1
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.68 0.02
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.260 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.006 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.964 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.738 0.000
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00