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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
28
42
104
0
0
1
1
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
0
0
50
50
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
27
40
99
0
0
1
1
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.71 0.02
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.011
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.269 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.731 0.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00