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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
3
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
20
64
102
0
1
2
3
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
0
25
50
75
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
19
61
97
0
1
2
3
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.210
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.86 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.186
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.186
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.194 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 -0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.333
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00