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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
20
63
101
0
1
3
4
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
19
60
96
0
1
3
4
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.219
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.81 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.171
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.171
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.196 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.002 0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.802 0.250
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00