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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
3
0
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
21
52
103
2
0
0
2
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
67
0
0
67
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
20
50
98
2
0
0
2
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.200
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.90 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.200
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.200
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.796 1.000
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00