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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
4
6
0
3
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
33
39
98
0
2
4
6
26
35
43
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
0
29
57
86
0
43
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
32
38
94
0
2
4
6
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.356
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.80 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.034
true Heidke skill score: 0.364 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.034
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.330 0.089
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.036
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.943 0.093
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.663 0.333
samples: 7 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 6.73 %coverage: 100.00