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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
0
3
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
32
39
97
0
3
4
7
26
35
43
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
57
100
0
43
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
31
38
93
0
3
4
7
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.77 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.914 0.093
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.670 0.429
samples: 7 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 6.73 %coverage: 100.00