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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
33
35
103
1
0
0
1
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
50
0
0
50
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
32
34
99
1
0
0
1
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.12 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.680 1.000
samples: 2 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 1.92 %coverage: 100.00