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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
36
32
35
103
0
0
0
0
36
33
35
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
35
31
34
99
0
0
0
0
35
32
34
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.12 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: -1.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.333 -0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.970 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.689 0.000
samples: 2 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 1.92 %coverage: 100.00