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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
30
41
30
101
0
0
0
0
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
33
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
29
39
29
97
0
0
0
0
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.413
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.40 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.120
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.120
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.402 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.003 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.062 0.976 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.594 0.000
samples: 3 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 2.88 %coverage: 100.00