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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
30
42
30
102
1
0
0
1
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
33
0
33
33
0
0
33
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
29
40
29
98
1
0
0
1
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.413
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.43 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.120
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.120
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.500 1.000 0.000
threat score:
0.031 0.412 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 1.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.013 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.031 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.588 1.000
samples: 3 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 2.88 %coverage: 100.00