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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
30
41
30
101
1
1
0
2
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
29
39
29
97
1
1
0
2
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.40 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.106
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.106
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.005
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.031 0.402 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.003 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.031 0.976 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.594 1.000
samples: 3 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 2.88 %coverage: 100.00