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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
16
17
25
58
0
0
2
2
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
0
20
0
20
0
0
40
40
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
26
27
40
94
0
0
3
3
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.22 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.706 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.500 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.056 0.288 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.375 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.004 0.043
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.944 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.707 0.000
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00