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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
16
17
26
59
0
0
1
1
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
0
40
0
20
20
40
0
0
20
20
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
26
27
42
95
0
0
2
2
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.28 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.412 true Heidke skill score: 0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.500
threat score:
0.056 0.283 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.375 0.091 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.026 -0.003 0.021
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.059 0.944 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.712 0.000
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00