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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
1
1
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
33
31
35
99
0
1
2
3
34
32
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
33
50
0
0
0
0
0
17
33
50
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
31
30
33
94
0
1
2
3
32
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 3.09 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.028 0.310 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.012 0.023
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.029 0.969 0.051
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.687 0.333
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00