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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
3
4
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
3
4
33
32
36
101
0
0
0
0
34
32
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
50
67
0
17
17
33
0
0
0
0
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
3
4
31
30
34
96
0
0
0
0
32
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.16 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.250 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.027 0.317 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.017 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.029 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.683 0.000
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00