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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
19
20
21
60
0
0
0
0
20
20
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
33
67
0
0
33
33
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
3
31
32
34
97
0
0
0
0
32
32
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.048 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.050 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 0.000
samples: 3 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 4.84 %coverage: 100.00