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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
20
20
20
60
0
0
1
1
20
20
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
33
0
0
33
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
32
32
32
97
0
0
2
2
32
32
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.016 0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.000
samples: 3 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 4.84 %coverage: 100.00