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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
37
34
32
103
0
0
0
0
38
34
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
35
32
30
98
0
0
0
0
36
32
31
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.03 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.026 0.330 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.007 0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.026 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.670 0.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00