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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
0
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
30
41
31
102
1
0
0
1
33
41
31
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
0
0
67
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
39
30
97
1
0
0
1
31
39
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.410
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.49 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.402 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.019 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.061 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.598 1.000
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00