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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
24
20
15
59
0
0
0
0
26
21
15
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
20
0
60
20
20
0
40
0
0
0
0
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
39
32
24
95
0
0
0
0
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.81 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.074 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.091 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.029 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.661 0.000
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00