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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
23
19
15
57
0
0
0
0
26
21
15
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
60
40
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
37
31
24
92
0
0
0
0
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.71 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.107 0.322 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.008 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.115 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.667 0.000
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00