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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
20
19
21
60
0
0
0
0
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
33
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
32
30
33
95
0
0
0
0
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.311 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.683 0.000
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00