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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
21
20
21
62
0
0
0
0
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
33
32
33
98
0
0
0
0
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.10 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.500 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.323 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.030 0.008 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.677 0.000
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00