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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
21
19
21
61
0
0
0
0
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
33
0
67
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
33
30
33
97
0
0
0
0
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 3.05 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.306 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.689 0.000
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00