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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
21
24
13
58
0
0
0
0
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
50
25
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
34
39
21
94
0
0
0
0
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.23 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.040 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.923 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.586 0.000
samples: 4 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 6.45 %coverage: 100.00