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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
22
24
14
60
0
0
0
0
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
67
0
67
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
35
39
23
97
0
0
0
0
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.387
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.31 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.081
true Heidke skill score: -0.800 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.081
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.387 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.286 -0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.032 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.000
samples: 3 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 4.84 %coverage: 100.00