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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
21
24
14
59
0
0
0
0
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
67
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
34
39
23
95
0
0
0
0
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.27 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.042 0.393 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.020 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.923 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.593 0.000
samples: 3 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 4.84 %coverage: 100.00