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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
21
25
14
60
1
0
0
1
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
50
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
34
40
23
97
2
0
0
2
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.31 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.410 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.333 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.005 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.962 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.583 1.000
samples: 2 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 3.23 %coverage: 100.00