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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
16
23
22
61
0
0
1
1
16
23
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
25
37
35
97
0
0
2
2
25
37
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.65 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.377 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.019 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.623 0.000
samples: 2 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 3.17 %coverage: 100.00