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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
29
19
12
60
0
0
0
0
31
20
12
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
20
0
60
20
0
20
40
0
0
0
0
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
46
30
19
95
0
0
0
0
49
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.071 true Heidke skill score: 0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.071 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.062 0.311 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.154 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 -0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.065 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.683 0.000
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00