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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
28
19
12
59
0
0
0
0
31
20
12
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
75
25
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
6
44
30
19
94
0
0
0
0
49
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.95 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.750 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.094 0.317 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.007 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.097 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.678 0.000
samples: 4 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 6.35 %coverage: 100.00