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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
46
10
4
60
1
1
0
2
48
11
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
73
16
6
95
2
2
0
3
76
17
6
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 5.45 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.238
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.238
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.021 0.164 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.005 -0.009 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.021 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 1.000
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00