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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
48
10
4
62
0
0
0
0
48
11
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
76
16
6
98
0
0
0
0
76
17
6
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.159
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 5.64 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.262
true Heidke skill score: -1.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.262
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.159 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.333 -0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.839 0.000
samples: 2 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 3.17 %coverage: 100.00