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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
23
20
19
62
0
1
0
1
25
21
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
0
0
67
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
35
31
29
95
0
2
0
2
38
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.95 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.080 0.317 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.051 -0.001 -0.015
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.080 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.677 1.000
samples: 3 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 4.62 %coverage: 100.00