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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
6
20
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
7
9
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
6
20
22
13
6
41
0
2
2
4
29
22
14
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
29
25
83
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
17
29
38
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
9
31
34
20
9
63
0
3
3
6
45
34
22
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.86 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 1.86 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.109 true Heidke skill score: -0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.115 true Kuipers skill score: -0.040
threat score:
0.350 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.167 0.260 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.082 0.000 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.058 -0.024 0.075
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.241 0.591 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.650 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.650 0.683 0.500
samples: 24 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 36.92 %coverage: 100.00