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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
11
28
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
8
12
11
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
11
28
18
11
6
35
2
1
0
3
26
23
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
35
35
90
0
0
0
0
6
3
0
10
26
39
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
17
17
42
27
17
9
53
3
2
0
5
39
35
26
100

hitrate: 0.194 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.00 0.27
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.08 1.52 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.210 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.101 true Heidke skill score: -0.167
Kuipers skill score: -0.210 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.112 true Kuipers skill score: -0.161
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.234 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.054 0.000 -0.082
equitable threat score:
-0.136 -0.034 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.231 0.478 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.686 1.000
samples: 31 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 46.97 %coverage: 100.00