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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
10
26
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
6
13
10
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
10
26
20
10
7
37
1
2
0
3
26
23
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
38
34
90
0
0
0
0
3
7
0
10
21
45
34
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
17
15
39
30
15
11
56
2
3
0
5
39
35
26
100

hitrate: 0.172 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.33 0.00 0.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.61 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.241 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: -0.063 true Heidke skill score: -0.212
Kuipers skill score: -0.241 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: -0.076 true Kuipers skill score: -0.205
threat score:
0.185 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.106 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.000 -0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.143 -0.078 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.192 0.435 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.808 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.808 0.730 1.000
samples: 29 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 43.94 %coverage: 100.00