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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
4
13
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
1
10
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
4
13
14
27
8
49
1
1
1
3
15
37
13
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
56
25
81
0
0
0
0
6
6
6
19
6
63
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
6
20
22
42
12
75
2
2
2
5
23
57
20
100

hitrate: 0.062 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
13.00 0.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 1.32 0.23
Heidke skill score: -0.406 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: -0.053 true Heidke skill score: -0.104
Kuipers skill score: -0.406 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: -0.092 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.458 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.062 0.000 0.010
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.029 0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.730 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.449 0.667
samples: 16 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 24.62 %coverage: 100.00